Congress on back foot

Congress on back foot


With the general election coming closer, the Congress finds itself isolated in Andhra Pradesh. Its alliance with the TRS is over, while the Left parties are moving closer to the UNPA, of which the TDP is a member. Does this mean defeat for the Congress in this State?

In 2004, when the Congress aligned with the newly formed regional outfit, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, in Andhra Pradesh, it did not expect that the two would part ways after four years. A flashpoint has arisen in the State politics as the TRS elected representatives, including 16 MLAs, six MLCs and four MPs, resigned this week.



It was a marriage of convenience for both - the Congress and the TRS - because they wanted to oust the Telugu Desam Party led by Mr Chandrababu Naidu; their efforts succeeded in the installation of the Congress Government. The TRS, which also won five Lok Sabha seats, supported the UPA Government at the Centre. However, much has happened since then; the TRS is struggling to remain alive thanks to a meek leadership.



The breaking point came because the TRS has survived on a one-point demand for a separate State, Telangana, and when it failed to get it even after four years, the only option left was to pressurise the Congress. What could have been a better way than to resign from the Lok Sabha and the State Assembly a few months before the election?



The Congress is not ready for a decision on Telangana, as the issue is quite tricky and emotional. The Congress, being a national party, has to think of the consequences, as it will face demands for creation of smaller States like Vidarbha, Saurashtra, Harit Pradesh, Bundelkhand and Bodoland.



The case for Telangana was presented to the States Reorganisation Commission, set up by the Government of India in the early-1950s to examine the question of reorganisation of States. The commission was, however, not in favour of merging Telangana with the then Andhra State.



The concerns for a separate Telangana were manifold. First, the Congress has to find a consensus within the party at the local as well as central level. Its leaders from Telangana want a separate State, while those from the other two regions - Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema - are opposed to it. It will be difficult to get a resolution for a separate Telangana passed in the State Assembly, without which the process cannot begin.

While the local Congress is divided, the TDP and the CPI(M) are opposed to it. A section of the TDP, particularly from the Telangana region, is in favour of a separate State. The BJP and the CPI are supporting the TRS. The MIM is demanding a separate Urdu State. With such a division, a consensus is eluding at the State level. In the State Assembly with 294 members, only 107 members hail from the Telangana region.

At the central level, the Congress is leading the UPA coalition, but there are other parties which have different opinions on the formation of separate States. Congress president Sonia Gandhi went out of the way to include the issue in the Common Minimum Programme, which spelt out that the UPA Government would try to find a consensus on the issue; four years down the line, the consensus is still eluding.

The Congress leadership is clear that Statehood cannot be granted in the absence of consensus among political parties at the Centre. A consensus is possible only when the CPI(M), the Samajwadi Party and the Telugu Desam Party retract from their opposition to separate Telangana. The AICC has made clear of its disinclination to take any new initiative before the next Lok Sabha election, even as pro-Telangana leaders have vetoed its move to constitute a second States Reorganisation Commission. The AICC has to tread carefully on contentious issues like the fate of Hyderabad and the sharing of resources.

Leading the opponents of Telangana is Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy. His efforts have been helped by the growing image of Hyderabad as an IT centre, which may mobilise a larger number of people against a separate State.

Last month Mr Reddy tried to impress upon the Congress leadership that Telangana would become a Maoist-dominated area and he had allocated adequate resources to the region for its development. The pro-Telangana supporters argue that the region is less developed compared to Andhra and Rayalaseema. Rivers like Krishna and Godavari flow through Telangana, but other regions utilise them. There is less literacy and more backwardness in the region. Most of the new jobs are given to other regions.

The impact of the TRS leaving the UPA will be felt during the election. In the next election, the Congress may be isolated as the Left parties are moving towards the UNPA, which includes the TDP. Meanwhile, the BJP and the NCP are supporting the TRS. For a weakened TRS, it will be an acid test to prove its strength. Also, if Chiranjeevi floats a new party, that will be a bad news for the Congress.

It is better for the Congress not to open the Pandora's box than regret it later. The TRS will try to take the agitation to a high pitch, but it is the people of the State who will decide what is best for them